Yesterday was the start of the NBA season and today the Kings play their first game of the 2021-2022 season. The Kings are currently tied with the record of 15 missed postseasons. It has been eons since I’ve regularly watched winning basketball. Will this be a chance at pent up redemption or will the Kings be the sole leader of the longest playoff drought in NBA history?
In this post, I’ll be going over my predictions for the season. Lots has changed to the roster since my last prediction post. I missed last year since, well to be honest, I didn’t think we’d make it through the season with the pandemic (which I still think was a meh decision to continue with all the risk and infected rates). Also, the Kings were going through a period of being near-unbearable to watch. As the season continued, I realized that perhaps this season was happening after all, but after a “hot” 3-1 start to the season, they then went on a 2-11 streak. As I prepped for tank season, they then went on an optimistic 7-1 run… followed by a 0-9 streak. The Kings were bad, with a coach I don’t agree with on or off the court. It was hard to watch, despite a promising young rook and a lovely star to root for in Fox who was clearly taking a step up.
Historically, the 9th seed is in the worst seed to get. You have no playoffs, and get the worst draft pick odds for all non-playoff bound teams. A good reason why the Kings have been so generationally awful is because they always *try* to make the playoffs and “fall short” by a good deal. Rarely last, but never in. In a spark of ingenuity, the league tried out last year the play-in tournament, giving chances to the 9th and 10th seeds making the playoffs if they can knock off either the 7th or 8th seed. This in theory would boost the odds of making SOMETHING. But in classic Kangz fashion, we finished last year with a 31-41 record, which stood for 12th in the West, once more, a horrid spot to be in. It was a far cry from the optimism that had me put them over .500.
Trials and Tribulations
The Kings have a historically rancid defense. If they want to improve on this, ideally they can keep other teams under 117 points a game. Individually, there are decent defenders in Fox, Haliburton, Barnes, and Holmes. But when your team defense is that pathetic, it should point to the inadequacies of the coaching staff.
There are other smaller parts to why the Kings lost as many games as they did, but the elephant in the room is on the defensive end. Coach Walton has been preaching about defense since he got here but his schemes haven’t improved.
The Cycle of Delusional Hype Continues
The Kings are Summer League champs with a squad that played the best defense I’ve ever seen in Summer League. Do I credit Bobby Jackson? The roster? Our talented defensively-focused rookie? Yes. Then the Kings won every game in preseason hmmm. I will say, as a big fan of defense, in a small sample size in “meaningless” games, we look far better to start. It all starts with how intense and impactful our new rookie is.
Davion Mitchell initially had me shake my head. The LAST positional need we had was PG, and while I’m a big proponent of picking the best player available, boards had Mitchell to the Kings as a stretch. After watching him, I learned that he is incredible, can defend beyond PG, and best of all was the best player the Kings could have possibly drafted to get them some Ws.
Stats will back this up. If Mitchell is on you, you will have an Off-Night (his nickname, one of the coolest for a rookie I’ve ever heard). He can shut down a player completely, it’s incredible. Whether it’s steals, contests, deflections, or denying any momentum or movement, this player is already an elite defender. He reminds me most of Jrue Holiday’s defense, one of the very best in the league.
The New Blood
Lots of retention this year. Last year near the deadline we picked up Mo Harkless and Terrence Davis who will play significant minutes. Over the offseason we traded for Tristan Thompson, who’s a vet big. We also got ya boi Alex Len back, another big man.
Davion Mitchell is going to be great for us, giving the Kings exactly what they lacked most as a highly competent defender who will make everyone around them better at defense. He’s older for a rookie, which tells me his value will be made apparent early and he’ll likely have a fantastic year.
The other pick ups are solid role players, in a classic Kings way.
The Departures
Delon Wright is the biggest loss in my opinion. He didn’t blossom in Sac the way he did in Detroit, and while I really dig him and his game, he definitely played at the worst position (guard) for the team to get as many minutes as I think he’s worth playing, especially after drafting Davion. Trading him made sense, and getting a savvy vet in exchange who can rebound and adding much needed physicality to our overall soft team through adding Tristan Thompson is a move I’m a fan of.
Hassan Whiteside being gone is good riddance. While his size makes him a threat on boards and easy buckets, watching him play defense was sickening, a pair made more ghastly alongside turnstile defender Marvin Bagley. Him being gone is fantastic. Last year we had a problem of playable competent big men. Whiteside playing regular minutes for us, especially when Holmes went out for a little bit resulted in some rough loss streaks at the hands of being unable to reliably guard anyone. Now we have fantastic depth at center, more at 11.
Kyle Guy I’ll miss most for his bench reactions. I always love a good bench towel swinger. He’s got a decent three point shot and clearly plays hard, but only worsened the Kings’ worst problem, playing competent defense.
Justin James was a basketball player. He played a tiny bit more defense than Kyle Guy but made bad fouls because he like most the lineup can’t stay in front of anyone on defense. And instead of just being blown by like dust in the wind to the likes of Whiteside, Bagley, or Buddy, Justin James would make up for it by flailing his arms toward the ball-handler. He shares a trait with Kyle as a great towel waiver, but I will not miss him.
All in all, no tears shed.
Roster Depth
Let’s go over the team’s roster via “position” and describe what I think about it. I’ve broken it out into Guards, Forwards, and Bigs since this roster will need to be more fluid than past rosters for reasons I’ll mention later.
Guards
Depth: De’Aaron Fox, Tyrese Haliburton, Davion Mitchell, Buddy Hield, Terence Davis, Jahmi’us Ramsey,
Fox: I hope has an all star year. He put up all star stats last year but in the West guard spots are tight, and you’ll need to start better than 12-22 to be considered on a Kangz team.
Haliburton: The 2nd best rookie from last year is more dreamy than ever. Success for me has him doing primary ballhandling in all the minutes without Fox, and a ton of ballhandling with Fox on the court. He’s so smart and witty and well rounded. Excited for more. Interested how many minutes he gets in the rotation at other positions since he can guard the 3 a little.
Mitchell: Ongoing trend starting here, while his offense is that of a perimeter threat with playmaking potential closer to a guard, on defense he’s versatile. I can see him playing many minutes alongside Fox and Hali. Excited for him.
Hield: Prolific scorer on an inconsistent defender. Perfect bellwether. If Buddy’s cooking, the team is usually soaring. If he’s stinking, ugh. Though, perhaps less of this in 2021-2022 while we having better shooting, and I think he’ll get less minutes. Don’t love him off the court and absolutely can be traded, but he’s quite valuable.
Davis: Least favorite player off the court for obvious re-searchable reasons, but has a great game. Good shooter and scorer, and will light up defenses off the bench. Can see him playing 3 as well to play the Xs and Os work.
Ramsey: Hasn’t shown up much in the few minutes he’s had, but at this depth, yeeeesh.
My rating: We are incredibly deep at the guard position. We have a solid starting unit and second unit. Some will need to stretch the 3 and that will be out of position for them, but you have options between scoring and defense and that’s exciting.
Wings
Depth: Harrison Barnes, Mo Harkless, Chimezie Metu, Robert Woodard, Marvin Bagley
Barnes: He’ll be solid night in and night out, and sometimes our best player. Hopefully we don’t trade him for nothing, the Kings aren’t very good at trading for forwards, and we are stretched thin for what Barnes can do for the team.
Harkless: Liked him on the team last year, and I think he’ll be solid for the team. Easily our worst starter at the 4 our thinnest position, but he’s quite serviceable. I’m expecting solid defense from him.
Metu: Love his passion. A bit inconsistent and can work on the defense and glass but can surprise people with his production. Definitely a great pickup from the G-League.
Woodard: Will play garbage minutes to start, a little unpolished.
Bagley: When I heard the news that Bagley wasn’t part of the rotation I was THRILLED. This dude does not play winning basketball. He is the worst defender on a team historically petrifying on D. His off court shenanagans are a large nuisance to any team trying to build chemistry, from him to his family to his agent. Sunk cost is a real thing in a draft where he got picked second over Luka, Trae, and friends, but it’s a fallacy to keep investing. The team will always be better with him not playing – no matter how potent his offense can be, it’s at the cost of disaster defense and a putrid BBIQ.
Rating: We have the biggest hole at power forward, and I really don’t like any Kings player at that position besides Barnes who’s our best SF. This depth can be plugged a bit from both the guard and bigs sampling, but if there’s any seasonal moves to be made for positional need, this one is it. With how capable the rest of the squad is, I hope whoever is getting the most playing time here can defend well.
Bigs
Richaun Holmes, Tristan Thompson, Alex Len, Damian Jones
Holmes: Mmm boy do I love me that dinker. Smooth as gravy and the most ergonomically way you’ve seen a body move. On Vol. 4 I was quite high on this guy, and boy has he delivered. He plays the best perimeter defense of any big guy in the league in my opinion, and he’s great offensively as a play finisher and rebounding threat. Fantastic starting center.
Thompson: I really love this move. Not only do we get a savvy vet with chip experience, we get a guy playing quality minutes in a great role that is quality enough to start on most teams. Thompson is best known on the court for how prolific his rebounding is, and he’ll actually block out, something the league/team hardly knows but is so fundamental. He also can score well, and add toughness to the team. Having him come off the bench is absolutely a privilege for a team struggling with bigs depth last year.
Len: Just how Thompson is a privilege to have come off the bench for a guy who could start, Len is a privilege to have as a THIRD string center, for a guy who’d be a serviceable bench big anywhere. For whatever reason people dog on him, but I like his game and how hard he plays while on the Kings. It’s a weird thing with Len. Usually players break out after they are off the Kings, but I actually think Len’s played his best bball as a King, go figure. I imagine Thompson or Holmes could share the floor at some point or rest up, and at that point, it’s Len time baby.
Jones: Similar to guards, I doubt Jones will get much play time. However, he’s a very solid player!
Rating: Our depth at center in the offseason went from “oh shit we have to play Whiteside solid minutes god save the queen” to really really solid. While Holmes is a great scorer, energy man, and perimeter defender, Thompson is a great interior defender and rebounder. We have a solid skill set through these bigs.
The Front Office
GM Monte McNair has a great track record with me as he enters his second year as GM. He picked the best player in the draft at the position with Haliburton last year, and I have high hopes on Davion Mitchell playing incredible basketball for the Kings this year.
The Front Office seems more stable than the last decade in general which is a good sign. The team hasn’t experienced any meaningful attrition since the loss of Bogey, and has a stable core which helps.
That being said, I’m torn on Luke Walton. Now, I’m not torn on believing that Walton is not a good coach. He’s already proven that. However, another coaching change for the unknown isn’t promising to me. I can’t believe Walton is the 2nd most “winningist” coach in Kings history. He’s nooot gooddd ahhh. But continuity is good. I am never a fan of firing coaches midseason so if it’s clear it’s another disappointing season, I hope it’s after the whole season. However, I sense a shift in the air. We have improved roster construction, and my optimism for the season is despite the coaching, not because of it.
As for the owner, the less I hear about him this year, the better.
Prediction Time
| My Guess | Result | |
| 2016-2017 season | 39-43 | 32-50 |
| 2017-2018 season | 30-52 | 27-55 |
| 2018-2019 season | 28-56 | 39-43 |
| 2019-2020 season | 42-40 | 31-41 |
| 2020-2021 season | skipped with shame | 31-41 |
On paper we are definitely better than last year, but how much is the question. We have our deepest bench in some time, but whether or not they can execute is still going through an unproven lackluster coach. For us to have a good run this year, we’ll need to start hot early, learn how to defend the pick and roll, have that ball ZIP on offense (aka don’t let Buddy ball-handle and implement a free movement offense).
Some positives I predict. I predict we’ll have a much more fluid offense with more motion and pace. I also predict we’ll have a better defense. How much better? Eh, a little better. I’m thinking TOP TWENTY BAYBEE (out of 30) lock it IN. Oh also I think Fox will play EVEN BETTER than last year (and still not be an all star). I also predict Buddy will be more efficient and play smarter basketball, and than Bagley will be traded (which would be amazing news).
Now for some negatives I’ll predict. I predict will be another big loss streak that crushes morale, bad morale from said loss streak, and a slump by a young guy. My money is on Tyrese slumping (after all, I drafted him in fantasy this year), but sooomebody’s gotta struggle, it’s the Kings baby! Finally, I predict that we’ll still suck at the pick and roll defense.
I actually think the West got easier this year. Sure there are still stud teams who are gonna rock us, and the West as a conference is much better than the East, but there are more windows than average to see that play-in tourney.
For all the signings, I think the most impactful will be Tristan Thompson, who can be a culture setter and an anchor big. Davion will be huge, but I think his time is still coming and will be our second biggest acquisition for the season (and at some point this will change towards the end of the season to be #1).
Biggest breakout this year? I’m predicting Davion Mitchell to break out late into the season. Let’s go rook.
I have the Kings getting the 10th seed.
| 2021-2022 season | 38-44 |
Still under .500. They have a better roster but I still think there’s optimism to this guess. I think they’ll get an opportunity at the play-in and get bounced immediately.
huesteus 